A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

基于Multi-Agent的信息共享行为建模研究

针对信息共享行为的优化需求,构建了基于Multi-Agent的信息共享行为模型,该模型由Agent特性、Agent信念、Agent连通性和Agent行为4个模块组成。在Agent信念模块,提出了关于信念的信任值量化更新方法,将其作为信息共享行为交互的优先级排序的依据。规范了Agent发送信息、接收信息和处理信息的实验流程。通过仿真实验,得出了较为理想的信息共享行为组织模式,实现了信任阈值下的信息过滤,通过实验结果分析验证了信息共享行为模型的有效性。     

基于量子双向RRT算法的多平台反舰导弹协同航路规划

针对反舰导弹航路规划面临的动态威胁环境和多平台协同打击问题,提出了一种基于量子双向RRT算法的反舰导弹协同航路规划方法。采用动态坐标设置动态威胁,实时地避开动态威胁;通过取预规划终点方法,实现对目标的时间和空间协同打击;结合量子进化思想,将RRT算法中的扩展方向量子化表示,提出了一种量子双向RRT算法,并应用于航路规划。仿真结果表明,该方法可有效规避动态威胁和解决多平台反舰导弹航路规划的协同问题,并显著地改善了RRT算法的全局收敛性,得到了航程更短的航路。     

量子保密通信技术前沿述评

量子保密通信是利用量子力学的基本原理来实现信息无条件安全传递的一种全新密码方法,其核心是量子密钥分发。2014年正好是量子保密通信的第一个协议—BB84协议提出30周年。经过30年的发展,量子保密通信在理论和实验上都得到了快速发展,实际工程应用也初具规模。文章对量子保密通信的历史发展及研究现状进行了简要回顾,特别介绍了基于实际量子保密通信系统的量子黑客和防御。最后,对未来的几个研究方向进行了简要讨论。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

Strategic Ambiguity: Nuclear Sharing and the Secret Strategy for Drafting Articles I and II of the Nonproliferation Treaty

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, the United States has engaged in nuclear sharing with its NATO allies. Today, 150-200 tactical nuclear weapons remain on European soil. However, the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) prohibits the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear weapon states. The potential discrepancy between text and practice raises the question of how the NPT's negotiators dealt with NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements while drafting the treaty that would eventually become the bedrock of the international nonproliferation regime. Using a multitiered analysis of secret negotiations within the White House National Security Council, NATO, and US-Soviet bilateral meetings, this article finds that NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements strengthened the NPT in the short term by lowering West German incentives to build the bomb. However, this article also finds that decision makers and negotiators in the Lyndon B. Johnson administration had a coordinated strategy of deliberately inserting ambiguous language into drafts of Articles I and II of the Treaty to protect and preserve NATO's pre-existing nuclear-sharing arrangements in Europe. This diplomatic approach by the Johnson administration offers lessons for challenges concerning NATO and relations with Russia today.     

Coordination mechanisms for a three‐stage reverse supply chain to increase profitable returns

In this article, we consider a generic electronic product that can be remanufactured or recycled at the end of its life cycle to generate new profit. We first describe the product return process and then present a customer segmentation model to capture consumers' different behaviors with respect to product return so that the retailer can work more effectively to increase the return volume. In regard to the collaboration between the retailer and the manufacturer, we explore a revenue‐sharing coordination mechanism for achieving a win‐win outcome. The optimality and sensitivity of the critical parameters in four strategies are obtained and examined both theoretically and numerically, which generate insights on how to manage an efficient consumer‐retailer‐manufacturer reverse supply chain, as well as on the feasibility of simplifying such a three‐stage chain structure. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

氦原子1S, 3S, 1P, 3P态的电子关联计算

本文从二次量子化公式出发,选取广义Laguerre多项式乘以γ~lcxp(-alγ)作为单电子径向函数完全集,这里a_l是依赖于轨道角动量l的变分参数,用组态相互作用方法计算了氨原子~1S,~3S,~1P,~3P态的能量和波函数。当组态限于主量子数n≤4,计算的能量相对精度约为99.9%;当组态限于%≤6,能量相对精度约为99.99%;而Hartree Fock方法的能量相对精度约为99%,利用原子波函数计算了一些原子参数,其结果与其他作者的结果符合很好。     

连续变量三体纠缠态的纠缠交换及量子远距离克隆

寻找合适的连续变量三体纠缠源,并利用它来讨论连续变量的三体纠缠交换过程,使得没有任何相互作用的遥远的三体之间产生纠缠;同时研究纠缠态的量子远距离克隆过程,从而使连续变量纠缠态的1对纠缠模被远距离克隆成2对纠缠模,实现纠缠性质的远距离克隆。     

传感器网络在网络中心战中的应用

介绍了传感器网络对比于分立式传感器的优势所在,指出传感器网络通过多点数据融合及任务指派的方法加强传感器网络在监视和跟踪空中目标、地面活动目标、以及特殊目标(如联合战区防空反导、目标战损估计)中的应用。提出了传感器网络应该解决的几个具体问题;包括节点选择与优化部署方面的组建原则、任务指派方面的注意事项、资源管理的目标要求、异构资源信息共享的四种解决方法、以及网络安全(关于网络本身的健壮性以及数据的安全性)等方面的问题和解决方法。